Insights

 The U.S. economic picture is looking more muddled than expected. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.8% last week. Used automobile prices rose quickly in response to the semiconductor shortage limiting new car production and demographic trends boosting demand. Retail sales were expected to bui …

 The U.S. job market added only 266,000 jobs in April, missing expectations of nearly 1 million. March’s gain of more than 900,000 new jobs was revised down to 770,000. The data show the U.S. job market slowed rather than accelerated in April. The leisure and hospitality industry experience …

 U.S. GDP surged an annualized 6.4% in the first quarter (Figure 1). Two rounds of government stimulus helped the economy climb within 0.9% of its all-time high. If expected growth is included, the economy remains 3.7% below pre-COVID trends. Personal income jumped 21.1% from February as a …

 S&P 500 earnings are exceeding elevated expectations. Before earnings season began, S&P 500 earnings were expected to grow 23.6% as businesses rallied from lower earnings during the COVID shutdowns from one year ago. Based on the first quarter of companies reporting, earnings are n …

 The U.S. economy seems to be returning to firmer footing based on economic data released last week. Initial jobless claims fell to 576,000 and are the lowest they have been since mid-March 2020. The number of people receiving some form of government jobless support dropped from 18.2 millio …

I bet you’ve never heard of Dystrophic Epidermolysis Bullosa (DEB). It’s a rare disease where a person’s skin falls off! Areas that are often rubbed, like your elbow from sitting at a table or your thighs from wearing pants, become a constant battle. It’s painful, and patients suffer from f …

 Producer prices climbed 4.2% last week (Figure 1). Energy prices contributed to the largest gain since the index rose 4.5% in September 2011. The jobs market continues to see a high level of initial jobless claims while steady progress is being made in reducing the number of unemployed rec …

The U.S. jobs market roared back to life in March. The economy added or reclaimed 916,000 jobs, shattering expectations of a 150,000 increase. Workers being recalled or hired to fill openings at restaurants and bars contributed 176,000 jobs to March’s gains. Previous months were revised hig …

 Slow improvement in economic data is being masked by the surging nature of government support. The gush of personal income growth in January was followed by a 7.1% decline in February. March will likely surge again with the latest round of stimulus. Employee compensation, which excludes go …

Retail sales were unable to keep pace with a stimulus-induced surge. Retail and food service sales dropped 3% in February after spiking 7.6% in January. The January data was revised 2.3% higher than first reported. Core retail sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, and restaurants, fell even …